On a side note, this experiment was part of the NOAA CAS Weather Camp at Jackson State University. We were observing the rotation and rising motion within the tornado. Other campers involved in this experiment were Rachel, Steven, Kevin, Kiya (probably spelled it wrong, my apologies) and Max.

Severe weather forecasts will resume once I return home, if anything of interest appears.

The Importance of SKYWARN Storm Spotters

Today’s topic of Severe Weather Awareness Week is the importance of SKYWARN storm spotters. SKYWARN is the national program used by the National Weather Service to train up local storm spotters. These spotters are the eyes and ears on the ground for the forecasters, because Doppler Radar cannot see the what is happening on the ground below the storm. Storm spotters report damage, hail, tornadoes, flooding, and damaging winds. Again, even with the advanced technology of Doppler radar, it can only detect what is going on above ground, so spotters remove the guesswork involved.

Spotters are important, because spotters help provide early warning of any severe weather criteria. They can tell you when, where, how fast, how large, and in which direction in a matter of a phone call, which provides excellent details that help forecasters make warnings. This was the case on April 10th, 2009, when a storm spotter reported a large tornado heading for Murfreesboro. Murfreesboro got the warning, reducing the possible loss of life. If you are interested in becoming a SKYWARN spotter in Middle Tennessee, visit this link for the schedule of classes: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=ohxspotterclasses

So, this Thursday, the use of spotters in several states will likely be needed, as a severe weather pattern has been shaping up over the last few days. There is still a lot of disagreement in the models, so the shape, size, and severity of the area could diminish by the time of the event. The two main models, the GFS and the ECMWF, disagree, making it hard for forecasters to make a call. If the GFS model is right, then Middle Tennessee will likely miss the brunt of this severe weather event. However, if the ECMWF is right, the Storm Prediction Center believed that this area could be facing a very severe risk for supercells and tornadoes. They even put it in the days 4-8 outlook, which is rare for severe weather events to be called out so soon with certainty. Here is what the SPC has to say.

BY THU MORNING… A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS NWRN TX OR CNTRL OK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60F UP TO THE LOW CENTER….AND UP TO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS NRN OK/AR OR PERHAPS SRN MO. A SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 00Z.

UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR…CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED THIS FAR IN ADVANCE…THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT…RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO…A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

So, each day up until this event will be a topic of Severe Weather Awareness Week, followed by a forecast of the coming severe weather. Please keep checking back for more information!

“Tennessee declares emergency in advance of snow arrival

The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency has increased its activation level and called in additional staff to monitor the winter storm anticipated across much of Tennessee.

Update 6:30 p.m.: TEMA’s activation level was moved to level 3 and the state is under a declared state of emergency.

On Sunday at 6 p.m., James Bassham, Director of TEMA, raised the State Emergency Operation Center’s readiness to Level 4. In addition to staff being placed on duty at TEMA’s facilities in Jackson and Knoxville, a number of TEMA staff and emergency service coordinators from the Departments of Safety (Highway Patrol) and Transportation have reported to TEMA’s headquarters in Nashville.

TEMA’s Media Line will be available from 6 p.m. – 11 p.m. Sunday and again at 6 a.m. Monday morning.

Media can call 615-741-0482 to speak with a TEMA representative.”

Stay safe, as the snow will arrive in Nashville around Midnight tonight. The snow will continue until roughly Tuesday evening. It is safest to stay off of the road, as they will be slick with compact snow and possibly even ice. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 PM Monday.

…WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY…

.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA AT MID-AFTERNOON. A BROAD AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS…AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI…WESTERN ALABAMA AND PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING…AND SPREAD INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT…AND OVER NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT.

POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS…GENERALLY TWO TO FOUR INCHES ALONG AND NORTH INTERSTATE 40…AND FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE PLATEAU.

IN ADDITION…MORE SNOW IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ADD MORE ACCUMULATION TO THE SNOW TOTALS BROUGHT BY THE WINTER STORM.

Remember, this is because clouds are composed of water vapor. Just as air has weight (hence air pressure), so does water vapor. Fascinating stuff. I hope this intrigued you.

November 5 1948- An F2 tornado touches down in northwest Giles County, and travels for 7 miles, crossing into Maury County before lifting. No injuries are reported.

November 6 1885- An F2 tornado touches down near Estill Springs, resulting in 3 fatalities and 8 injuries.

November 7 1996- An F2 tornado cuts a 25 mile path across Franklin County, touching down west of Huntland. The tornado lifts near Belvidere, then skips to Dechard, Oak Grove, and Alto. There is only 1 reported injury.

November 8 1957- An F2 tornado touches down at Rebel Acres, near Pulaski, during the early morning. The twister travels northeastward for 5 miles before lifting. Amazingly, no one is injured.

November 10 2002- Middle Tennessee suffers one of its worst autumn severe weather outbreaks ever. Four tornadoes strike the Highland Rim during the early morning, with 2 fatalities in Port Royal. Then, following record high temperatures at Nashville (81) and Crossville (75), severe weather re-ignites during the late afternoon, with widespread wind damage, hail, and 8 additonal tornadoes. Lake Tansi Village, south of Crossville, is hardest hit, as a supercell produces baseball-size hail and an F3 tornado, killing 4. Two additional fatalities occur at New Union (Coffee County) as the result of two F2 tornadoes there. In addition to the 8 fatalities, 51 injuries are reported across the area. This is the 5th largest tornado outbreak in mid state history.

November 14 1951- An F2 tornado touches down briefly between the Elkton and Prospect communities in Giles County. There are no reported injuries.

November 15 2005- The second largest tornado outbreak in Middle Tennessee history produces 19 twisters across the mid state. One person is injured in Collinwood (Wayne County). This is the most tornadoes ever recorded in one day in the mid state with no fatalities.

November 18 1957- An F2 tornado cuts a 15 mile path across Fentress County, including the Armathwaite community. There is only 1 reported injury.

November 19 1906- An F2 tornado strikes the Mulberry community in Lincoln County, resulting in 8 injuries.

November 20 1900- F4 tornado cuts a devastating swath 300 yards wide and 8 miles long along the northwest edge of Columbia. Hardin, Wayne, and Lewis Counties may have had related tornado activity before the storm reached Columbia. Most deaths are in the Macedonia community, 2 miles west of Columbia, where the homes and cabins are “turned into kindling wood.” The funnel was moving northeastward, heading for the center of Columbia, but turns suddenly to the north. Damage is estimated at $40,000. The tornado kills 27, and injures 75. It is the 4th deadliest tornado to ever strike Middle Tennessee. An F3 tornado kills 9 and injures 40 along a 25-mile path across Williamson, Davidson, and Rutherford Counties.

November 23 1983- An F1 tornado touches down near Hurricane Mills (Humphreys County). No one is injured.

November 26 1925- F3 tornado touches down near Charlotte (Dickson County). Two farms, six miles apart, lost buildings. Timber is downed between the two farms. On the first farm, a two story log home is blown apart. Logs were driven into the ground 100 yards away. Damage is estimated at $10,000.

1985- Wind gust of 60 mph is recorded at Nashville.

November 27 1994- An F0 tornado cuts a 2 mile path through Bumpus Mills (Stewart County). No injuries are reported.

However, severe weather is not just limited to November. Tornadoes and severe weather can occur anywhere at any time of the year. Here are some other notable severe weather incidents.

December 24, 1988- F4 tornado tears a path from the Rebel Meadows area of Franklin to the Brenthaven area of Brentwood. The tornado destroys 54 homes, 13 apartment units, 31 businesses, and 6 parked airplanes. A man is killed when a roof caves in. The tornado travels 6 miles with a path width of 150 yards. There are $50 million in damages, and 7 injuries.

January 10, 1963- An F3 tornado touches down at Spring Hill (Maury County) just before midnight. The twister cuts a 4 mile path, lifting at Bethesda (Williamson County), after causing 4 injuries.

January 22, 1999- Clarksville is struck by an F3 tornado before dawn. Five persons are injured. F3 tornado also strikes Benton County, killing 1 and injuring 5. Mount Pleasant (1 N) measures 7.10″ of rainfall — its greatest one-day rainfall ever.

February 6, 1942- One person is injured near Ardmore as a pre-dawn F2 tornado rips a 6 mile path across Giles and Lincoln Counties.

February 12, 1880- A late evening F2 tornado rips a 4-mile path across the Hillsboro area of Davidson County.

February 13, 1952- F4 tornado tears through Moore and Franklin Counties, moving through or near Lois, Marble Hill, Beech Hill, Marble Plains, and Decherd. There is damage to 109 farms. Hundreds of trees are downed in Lois and Marble Hill. Over a hundred homes are damaged or destroyed in Franklin County. A church, a school, a store, and a home are destroyed at Beech Hill. Two people are killed in Marble Plains, and one more in Dechard. Storm continues into Grundy County, producing an F2 which rips a path from Monteagle to Tracy City. The damage in Monteagle is estimated at $110,000, and $90,000 in Tracy City. About 150 buildings are affected. One person is injured in each town. A total of 4 fatalities are reported in the three counties, with 46 injuries. Overall, 5 tornadoes are reported across Middle Tennessee.

So, it is a good idea to have a preparedness plan and supplies ready, even though it may seem like severe weather is done for. For more information, visit  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=fallsevereweatherawarenessday-sept29,2010

I pretty much got all of this info from there, so it is worth a visit!

[quote]The National Weather Service office in Nashville, Tennessee is conducting a Severe Weather Awareness Day on Wednesday, October 21, 2009. The purpose of this day is to call attention to the secondary peak severe weather season that begins in the late fall. November historically has been a very active month for severe weather and tornadoes.[quote]

(Image from the National Weather Service in Nashville)

November has produced 48 different tornadoes, dating back to 1885. Some really powerful tornadoes have struck in november, most being F2, but 1 F3 and 1 F4.

Here is an excerpt from the National Weather Service page:

November 10 2002- Middle Tennessee suffers one of its worst autumn severe weather outbreaks ever. Four tornadoes strike the Highland Rim during the early morning, with 2 fatalities in Port Royal. Then, following record high temperatures at Nashville (81) and Crossville (75), severe weather re-ignites during the late afternoon, with widespread wind damage, hail, and 8 additonal tornadoes. Lake Tansi Village, south of Crossville, is hardest hit, as a supercell produces baseball-size hail and an F3 tornado, killing 4. Two additional fatalities occur at New Union (Coffee County) as the result of two F2 tornadoes there. In addition to the 8 fatalities, 51 injuries are reported across the area. This is the 5th largest tornado outbreak in mid state history.

[Quote] Right now is the perfect time of the year to check your preparedness plans! [quote]

PLEASE read the rest of the information here on the National Weather Service page. Go to http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/swaw/fall_severe_weather_awareness.php

Be safe, and spread the word about Fall Severe Weather Awareness Day!