The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has issued its yearly prediction of the upcoming hurricane season, which starts June 1st. This forecast does NOT predict how many hurricanes will make landfall, but rather how many hurricanes develop and how strong they might be. Before I discuss and post some of their forecast, I will post their uncertainties. This should help you understand the level of uncertainty in the forecast, because it is not an exact science. Also, I will go ahead and post the link to the outlook.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
“Sources of uncertainty in this seasonal outlook
1: Predicting El Niño and La Niña (also called ENSO) impacts is an ongoing scientific challenge facing climate scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill.
2: Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same general set of climate conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given climate signal will be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity.
3: Model predictions of sea-surface temperatures, vertical wind shear, moisture, and stability have limited skill this far in advance of the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.
4: Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity.”
The outlook says that there is an 85% chance that this hurricane season will be above normal, 10% chance of a normal season, and a 5% chance of a below normal hurricane season. The outlook also says that if this forecast ends up being true, and hurricanes tend to be on the upper end of the forecast, this 2010 hurricane season could be one of the most active on record. The Climate Prediction Center says the following in their outlook:
“We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.”
ACE is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, and it forecasts the intensity and longevity of hurricanes for a particular season. A quote about ACE, “According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.” In other words, there may be a lot of hurricanes this year. However, this does not predict hurricane landfall, only formation. The Climate Prediction Center does say, however, that historical records show that active seasons have an increase in hurricane landfall.
Yet another quote, “Because of the ongoing oil crisis in the Gulf of Mexico, we are including some historical statistics of tropical cyclone activity for this region (excluding the Bay of Campeche) based on past above normal seasons. These statistics do not represent an explicit forecast for tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico during 2010, as it is impossible to reliably predict such activity so far in advance. Historically, all above normal seasons have produced at least one named storm in the Gulf of Mexico, and 95% of those seasons have at least two named storms in the Gulf. Most of this activity (80%) occurs during August-October. However, 50% of above normal seasons have had at least one named storm in the region during June-July.”
So, this hurricane season may be one bumpy ride! As tropical storms develop over the next few months, I will make forecasts here on the website and try to constantly update as much as I can. Having family live right on the gulf, some of which were badly affected by hurricane Ike, it is definitely something personal. My hope this year is to be able to intercept a hurricane, but I would much rather no hurricanes at all. So, as we come into hurricane season, get your plan together.
