Current models are continuing to agree with the development of a significant winter storm through the weekend, with significant amounts of snowfall likely. There will also be large accumulations of ice over the mid state, making for hazardous conditions. Models are also in some agreement that it will start off as freezing rain, followed by snow as seen in the graphic below.
Special Weather Statement from the National weather Service.
...WINTER STORM EXPECTED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS WEEK...
A WINTER STORM IS STILL FORECAST FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE
THIS WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL DURING THAT PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID STATE WHILE PULLING
IN COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A MIXTURE OF RAIN,
SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I 40. SOME SNOW AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY, SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH. LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN, SNOW, SLEET,
AND FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE COULD
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID STATE. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...AND
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING...TYPES
AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES INCLUDING WINTER STORM
WATCHES WHICH MAY BE ISSUED TODAY.
When the above graphic says snow amounts could change drastically, it is not lying to you. Right now this is the best estimate the National Weather Service has, and after looking at the models it appears to be within this range. Just note that I am a novice forecaster, so I have/will be using the NWS along with models for forecasts. However, we can get significantly more/less snow, so do be sure to check the NWS frequently for forecast updates. I will also be updating after a winter storm watch has been issued, and until then I will be eyeing the forecasts. Stay safe!
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT… SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE.
