So earlier this morning/afternoon I left the house to go and spot these storms for the National Weather Service. I kind if knew and was hoping that this wasn’t going to be the worst of the storm when I left the house, and went after a couple of strong, non-severe storms for practice. Later, we intercepted what I thought would be a stronger storm system. Turned out that is wasn’t, and so I was severely confused. I pulled up the Storm Prediction Center and nearly had a heart attack. Most of Middle Tennessee is under a HIGH RISK, the highest level of risk you can go at the Storm Prediction center. I had no idea what was going on, I thought the weather was over. It turns out, there is a super strong wave that will come north and east from Mississippi. This system will be the strongest and most severe wave of thunderstorms to hit us, and the probabilities for tornadoes are shocking and honestly scary.
The Storm Prediction Center issued another tornado watch for most of middle Tennessee, regarding the new HIGH risk scenario. The probabilities are astounding. >95% for tornadoes, and 90% for EF-2 through EF-5 tornadoes! Please take appropriate caution this evening, as I have no idea when this will strike. Here is the text from the watch and the SPC outlook.
Tornado Watch:
DISCUSSION…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BOTH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND VERY DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WATCH THRU THE AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR LARGE LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL.
And from the High Risk outlook:
…MS/AL/TN/KY/FAR NORTHEAST AR/MO BOOTHEEL… HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY. UPPER 60S F/LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE WITHIN A PRISTINE WARM/MOIST SECTOR ALONG/SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT…WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTIVE SUPERCELLULAR INITIATION…WITH MORE OF A MIXED SUPERCELLULAR/QUASI-LINEAR MODE PROBABLE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE OH/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE. STRONG/ELONGATED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG AND DAMAGING TORNADOES…ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
I have also just heard that Jasoo, Ms. is completely obliterated by a massive wedge. This same system is heading our way, so please be safe!
