Alright folks, it’s happening. Do you remember how in the last post I said I would not be surprised if our risk just got upgraded? Well, we just got a massive upgrade from a SLIGHT risk to a MODERATE risk. We are at DEFCON 1 people, DEFCON 1! If you need a comparison to know what a MODERATE risk is, the last to Middle Tennessee had a MODERATE risk was the day of the Murfreesboro EF-4 tornado.
As for today, there is a MODERATE risk for severe weather across Louisiana/Arkansas, with a significant tornado risk across the area. This appears to be another monster like yesterday, and if that is true than I strongly urge people to be safe today. There is a big risk for really large hail and strong tornadoes within this area, so review your safety plan before it gets worse. This is what the Storm Prediction Center had to say for today:
…REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY…
…TX/LA/AR/MS/TN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MS VALLEY. ONE SUCH FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TRACKING ACROSS EAST TX WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF AR/LA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY. A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RAPID INFLUX OF NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG…AND HELP TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION SHOWN ON THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING AND COOLING…FURTHER HELPING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA /ESRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2 SHOWN BY 00Z/. THE COMBINATION OF DISCRETE INITIATION OF CONVECTION…AMPLE CAPE AND LAPSE RATES…STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR…AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES GIVE CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING THE FORECAST OF MULTIPLE TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/ TODAY OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR TO NEAR MEM. NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS UNCLEAR AND WILL BE MODULATED BY RETURN SPEED OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INTO THAT REGION.
Moving on to tomorrow and our risk, as said above we are under the gun with a MODERATE risk. Earlier I was describing it felt like we were more under the cannon than a gun! What is going to happen is that the warm front will move into the state tonight. This will bring strong thunderstorms to the area as early as tonight, and by Saturday morning/afternoon the apocalypse will have begun. Large hail, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes are the threat, especially with the large amounts of helicity/wind shear the models are showing. Here is what the Storm Prediction Center has to say about tomorrow.
--TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS INTO CNTRL GULF STATES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT--
…THE LOWER OH/LOWER MS VALLEYS EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE ERN GULF STATES…
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CYCLIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SECONDARY LOW TRACK SEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR /I.E. LARGELY DELINEATED BY MDT RISK AREA/. HERE…ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 200-300+ M2/S2…MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50-70 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE OH RIVER AND AS FAR E AS THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF STATES.
So, in other words, Saturday will be one heck of a day. The Hazardous Weather Outlook is calling for spotter activation as early as
tonight and especially tomorrow. From the Hazardous Weather Outlook:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE…WITH DAMAGING WINDS…HAIL…AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SEVERE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PUT MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOE SEVERE WEATHER. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE MID STATE SO FAR THIS SPRING…AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY…INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
$ SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA…
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN
Please be safe, and stay tuned here and to local media for more information as the event comes. I may not be able to make a post about this the day of the event, so it will be up to you to be safe, aware, and up to date.
