The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk on their days 4-8 convective outlook! BOTH day 4 and day 5 reach into tennessee, but day five has the greater area of Middle Tn. Here is the SPC outlook.
...DISCUSSION...
DESPITE INITIALLY DISPERSIVE MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBER
SOLUTIONS...22/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA /NAMELY THE ECMWF AND
GFS/ REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL OPENING AND
ERN/NERN PROGRESSION OF CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AT
THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT
STRENGTHENING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH CUT-OFF SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF SURFACE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID
MS/LOWER OH/LOWER MS VALLEYS ON D4 /FRI SEP 25TH/.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH D5 /SAT SEP
26TH/ ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY SWD
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES AS UPPER SYSTEM OPENS
AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD. THIS THREAT MAY EVEN EXIST INTO D6
/SUN SEP 27TH/ OVER PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF SURFACE FRONT AND PERTINENT
UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES REMAINS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE. THUS...NO
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED IN THIS FORECAST.
After I get back today, I will start looking at the forecast models and see what is going on. I already
took a brief look at the GFS, and from my limited experience things could look good... but before I do
any more of that I need to see if I can even understand what a cut-off low is.
Updates will come throughout the week as more information comes!
