Today through saturday is what I would describe as the apocalypse! Today has a MODERATE risk issued for Oklahoma and a 15%/significant tornado risk! Tomorrow holds yet ANOTHER MODERATE RISK in Louisiana and Arkansas, with a 45% risk of severe weather! Lastly, but most certainly not least, is middle Tennessee under our own Slight Risk. However, we are at the maximum of the slight risk before reaching moderate risk, so I would not be surprised if we were upgraded by the day of the event! People, we are in the process of a two-day if not a possible 3-day tornado outbreak across the United States. There have been 6 reports of tornadoes across Colorado, with more likely in Oklahoma throughout the day. For today, the Storm Prediction Center is saying that strong tornadoes are most certainly possible, and the large hail risk/significant tornado risks have been upgraded.
Tomorrow appears to be another day favorable for extremely violent storms across Louisiana and Arkansas. 
The Storm Prediction Center even dares say that it appears as if a tornado outbreak will be happening friday night through saturday during this risk area, which is another MODERATE risk.
…LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY…
A WELL-DEVELOPED SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX…A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN AR. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS NRN LA AND SRN AR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STORMS EXPANDING QUICKLY IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN AR…NRN MS AND SRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NRN LA AND SRN AR SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY…STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IF THE DEVELOPING STORMS BECOME SFC-BASED BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE QUICKLY NEWD OUT OF NRN LA ACROSS ERN AR AND WRN MS FRIDAY EVENING.
Tomorrow looks like it could be a monster just as much as today, and the SPC sounds like it is fearing the worst. They are saying strong supercells and strong tornadoes appear likely, and again they are talking about this being a tornado outbreak. To my family that lives in Arkansas, when you read this, let me stress the point that you need to be planning for this NOW. If you do not have a weather radio, get one. If you do not have a tornado safety plan, make one. The details about tornado safety will be posted at the bottom of this page. Please be safe out there.
As far as our risk on Saturday goes, we won’t be exempt from their danger. Our National Weather Service office in Nashville is expecting the possibilities of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. They have already begun issuing safety statements regarding this event, and it appears likely that things will get UGLY (or in my case, BEAUTIFUL!). Heck, I wouldn’t even be surprised if our risk got upgraded by the day of the event judging by the way things are shaping up. As far as TIMING for this event goes, the window for all of middle Tennessee is anywhere from 7:00 A.M. until 6:00 P.M. on Saturday. It looks as if there will be multiple rounds of thunderstorms throughout the day, rather than just a single event. Why? Because as opposed to the last few severe risks, this is a largely warm front powered system. The area in between the warm front and cold front of a low pressure system is known as the warm sector. The reason why we are getting such a large risk is because the warm sector is WAY ahead of the cold front, allowing for large amounts of heating and instability. The reason why we are getting more than one round of storms is more of a guess on my part, but it appears as if storms will come along with and inside of the warm front, and then AGAIN with the cold front. As for severity of this system, again, the NWS is calling for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Here is a bit more info from the Storm Prediction Center…
…CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/MID SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS…
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD…WITHIN AN AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY THE MS RIVER ON THE W…THE OH VALLEY ON THE N…AND THE APPALACHIANS ON THE E. WITHIN THIS AREA…A MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND FIELD SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL…INCLUDING HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND SEVERAL TORNADOES. WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION FORECAST DURING THE PRIOR FORECAST PERIOD…A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX SCENARIO WILL LIKELY EXIST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD. HAVING SAID THAT…ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INVOF THE MS/TN VALLEYS…AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SEVERAL WAVES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMALL-SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST/CYCLONIC SWLYS ALOFT. WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT BENEATH RAPIDLY VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT…BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROBUST/POTENTIALLY-TORNADIC SUPERCELLS…AIDED BY MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SURFACE DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH TIME…THE OVERALL THREAT AREA WILL SHIFT EWD…AND WHILE A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THE OH VALLEY…SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF TN AND AL…AND EVENTUALLY WRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
In a sum, severe probabilities will increase throughout the morning and continue through the rest of the day, with strong and potentially tornadic supercells. The Areal Forecast Discussion from out NWS office is agreeing with this, so read carefully.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A RATHER ROCKY DAY WEATHERWISE, AS WE`RE LOOKING AT THE STRONGEST STORM SYSTEM SO FAR THIS SEASON TO PLOW INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE MID STATE. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS, COUPLED WITH STRONG HELICITIES WILL MEAN THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
The Hazardous Weather Outlook doesn’t say anything the other outlooks have said already. However, it does say Storm Spotter activation seems likely, and I most CERTAINLY plan on being mobile on this event! I will end this off with the tornado safety guidelines from the National Weather Service, please read them carefully and plan! Please please PLEASE be safe and aware people, I do not want to hear of fatalities of any sort. Put fresh batteries in your weather radio if need be, and please just be smart. Don’t go and be a hero, don’t try and chase this, just be safe and use common sense.
TORNADO SAFETY RULES
1. IN HOMES OR SMALL BUILDINGS, GO TO THE BASEMENT OR TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM, SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM, ON THE LOWEST
LEVEL. GET UNDER SOMETHING STURDY SUCH AS A HEAVY TABLE OR A
BED.
2. IN MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES, ABANDON THEM AND GO TO A
STURDY STRUCTURE. IF THERE IS NO SUCH STRUCTURE NEARBY, LIE
FLAT IN A DITCH, RAVINE, GULLY, CULVERT OR LOW SPOT WITH
YOUR ARMS AND HANDS SHIELDING YOUR HEAD.
3. IN LARGE BUILDINGS, SUCH AS SCHOOLS, FACTORIES, HOSPITALS,
NURSING HOMES AND SHOPPING CENTERS, GO TO THE PREDESIGNATED
SHELTER AREA. INTERIOR HALLWAYS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR ARE
USUALLY BEST. STAY AWAY FROM ROOMS THAT ARE LARGE IN AREA
BECAUSE THEY HAVE WEAKLY SUPPORTED ROOFS.
4. IN HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS, GO TO AN INTERIOR SMALL ROOM OR
HALLWAY.
5. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DON`T BOTHER OPENING OR CLOSING
THEM. IT WON`T MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE TO THE STRUCTURE AND
YOU`LL JUST WASTE TIME OR PUT YOURSELF AT RISK SHOULD
GLASS BREAK AS YOU ARE NEAR.
