Today, the Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Tennessee under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. Here is what the SPC is saying for today.
…LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC…
BANDS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND N AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SRN OZARKS ENE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOIST /WITH PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUES. COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING…SUFFICIENT CAPE /2000-3000 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NUMEROUS NEW STORMS ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF MORNING ACTIVITY. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF GRT LKS TROUGH MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FROM KY NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST.
40-45 KT WSW MID-LVL FLOW ON NRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL SUPERCELLS…ESPECIALLY FROM KY/TN TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS…AND OVER CNTRL/SRN PA TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. EMBEDDED BOWS MAY YIELD BOTH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVE.
Also, this risk will continue throughout the weekend, with severe thunderstorms expected tomorrow (saturday) and possibly even
sunday night. When all is said and done, a possible 2-3 inches, if not locally higher, will have been dropped on the state. This may cause a few flood problems with the already bloated rivers, so keep an eye out. Click on this image to the right to show an animation of how the next few days will pan out. Also, I thought I would post what the Hazardous Weather Outlook says about the next few days.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH TODAY…WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER ON SATURDAY…THEN BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY…WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS…LARGE HAIL…AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY…MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FLOOD PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES… ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS REPEATEDLY OCCUR.
Currently there are storm firing up around Middle Tennessee, on with a severe thunderstorm warning on it for large hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH. Thunderstorms are expected to progress as the day goes on, and then convection will weaken by evening hours. Here is todays HWO.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY AND PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS…A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE… WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS…LARGE HAIL…AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
Pretty self explanatory, isn’t it? I took a brief look at the RUC forecast models, and was quite shocked at how much instability there is. Right now we have roughly 3000 j/kg CAPE values across a large portion of the state! It made me wonder why we were under such a minimal risk… well, I took a look at the helicity forecast and saw why. We have VERY little wind shear, only enough to support hail risk. Tornadoes seem unlikely at this point, due to the severe lack of wind shear. So don’t expect anything too crazy. You may see some decent sized hail, but other than that the severity is small.
