There is a chance, however small, of some severe weather throughout this week as a storm system moves in. The National Weather service is still somewhat unsure about how organized this system will be, because the models have been very scattered this week. However, as we get closer to some of these days there will be a more definite picture of what the weather will be like. I took a brief glance, and Tuesday and Wednesday are the best chances of thunderstorms, with a 60% chance on Tuesday (tomorrow) and a 40% chance on Wednesday.

I took a brief look at the twisterdata.com NAM models, and it looks like maximum CAPE values range in the 1000-1750 J/Kg, moisture will be decent, and just a little bit of wind shear. Lift Index levels will also bee in a good range, so we will keep an eye on that and hope for the best!

This is the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Middle Tennessee from the National Weather Service.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT… EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING CRITERIA.

The Storm Prediction Center has not issued any convective outlooks for us, but the Arklatex area does have a pretty good risk on Wednesday.

Keep an eye on the weather the next week, it will be on/off thunderstorms and the National Weather Service isn’t ruling out severe weather. Be alert!