For today, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. This storm system will be another late nighter, moving across the mid state from 10 P.M. through 7 A.M. on the eastern side. The SPC says the primary threat is damaging winds and large hail, but the threat for tornadoes does exist. This slightly unnerves me because Tennessee is famous for its nighttime tornadoes, which are the reason Tennessee has the highest number of tornado fatalities of any other state. However, we are so far east into the risk I do not know what to expect. I don’t see this being a major tornado outbreak, obviously, but I will be watching this closely and monitor its development. If you have a NOAA weather radio, now would be the time to make sure it is operational, fresh batteries, and all of that good stuff. It is these night storms that really warrant the use of a weather radio, and it is always a good idea to be prepared. More on the forecast side, the SPC is saying that the cold front will contribute to the low level lift that will initiate these storms, and a weak cap in the western portions of the state may lead to the development of a few supercells. As said earlier, the main threat is large hail/damaging wind, but isolated tornadoes are possible. Here is the SPC text regarding tonight.
From the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK:
…AR/MS/TN INTO OH VALLEY… SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER AR/LA/TX WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF MS/TN/KY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK CAP COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT…BUT LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED BOW/LEWPS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS…ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
So, that being said, there are risks within this storm, but mainly the western portions. The National Weather Service in Nashville thinks that the severe probabilities of this event will not go out much further east, going along with the same thing the SPC was saying.
As for timing, both the NWS in Nashville and the SPC are saying this will be a late night event. The NWS in Nashville has narrowed down that time slot for each section of Middle Tennessee, showing that the most severe part will be hit between 10 P.M. and Midnight. You can click on any of these images to view them larger, in case you haven’t noticed yet! 
The NWS has quite a bit to say about this event, so I will post the Hazardous Weather Outlook, as well as the Area Forecast Discussion. They will describe in better detail what is going on.
QUESTION IS HOW STABLE OF AN ENVIRONMENT WILL THIS SYSTEM BE MOVING INTO? SPC HAS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX OVERNIGHT…STATING THAT AN ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST NE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z THU… SO BEST DYNAMICS WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR N. NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM…WITH FRONTAL LIFT BEING THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM. ATM ACROSS MID STATE WILL BE UNSTABLE ..BUT PROBABLY NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX OUTBREAK. IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC THOUGH…THAT THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE ..WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SVR TSTMS DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. BELIEVE BEST WINDOW FOR SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z THU. HOWEVER…BELIEVE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS/TSTMS COULD BE AS SOON AS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LOCATIONS BASICALLY ALONG AND W OF I-65…SPREADING E DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE E OF THE MID STATE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS…BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING SHWRS AND TSTMS TO THE E HALF…ALTHOUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME THE DYNAMICS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THERE… BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG TSTMS ACROSS THIS REGION THOUGH.
And lastly to close things off, here is the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Please remember to be safe tonight, make sure your NOAA weather radio is working, and keep an eye on the news. Just a few guidelines, but if you do get caught in a tornado, don’t try to outrun it. Also, the safest place is in a basement or low lying area, but if you do not have a basement go into an interior bathroom or closet, or even hallway with no windows. Just choose the most interior, central, enclosed location on the BOTTOM floor of your house. Have a wonderful day, and be safe!
HWO:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT: A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS…IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT…WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE…WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT…ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS…CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH…WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. OTHERWISE…FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD…NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT… EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING CRITERIA.
