The Storm Prediction Center has issued Middle Tennessee under the Slight Risk for today! Concerning most middle-west Mid Tn, there appears to be some good probabilities going on! Tornadoes and damaging winds are the greatest threats right now, as seen below. Here are some of the SPC outlooks and forecasts:
...TX/ARKLATEX TO LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT OF INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...WITH 130-150 KT AND 60-100 KT AT 250 MB/500 MB
RESPECTIVELY...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MIDWEST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE MID-SOUTH ATTENDANT TO THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. OWING TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE COMMON AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO THE
OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO
SEVERE LEVELS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT A POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE RISK SHOULD EVOLVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY AND ARKLATEX/CENTRAL TX.
WITH A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...THE
DETAILS OF THE EVENTUAL NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF THE TRUE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE ACCELERATING COLD FRONT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
NONETHELESS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST /PERHAPS NEARING 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
AND DIURNALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO PORTIONS
OF MS/WESTERN TN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT FAST MOVING STORMS/POSSIBLE
SMALL BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. RELATIVELY
STRONG 1-2 KM FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH /150-300 M2 PER S2/ WILL
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY QUASI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
Here is the hazardous weather outlook for Middle Tennessee:
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A PASSING COLD FRONT MAY BRING STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DUE TO THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
So, the probability is in place, the patterns set up... it will be interesting to see how it all turns out! I honestly do not know how
well this system will turn out, because i have not had any time to look at the forecast models, but it looks like it COULD be
promising! Even though the National Weather Service here in Nashville doesn't expect spotter activation, I might grab the camera
and try to get some shots of lightning, and HOPE for a wall/funnel cloud or some hail! If I end up doing this and get anything good
I will make a post saying so.
Be safe and keep an eye out on the weather if things get iffy! Here is to hoping... 
UPDATE! Our severe risk has diminished after the round of storms that just swept
through, but the risk is still there...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL TX INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY...
...20Z UPDATE...
...NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES/UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY...
AN AREA OF MID/UPPER FORCING...DOWNSTREAM OF THE VIGOROUS CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH ACCELERATING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...APPEARS TO HAVE
PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINED PROMINENT ONGOING STORM CLUSTER NOW
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER
...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THIS FORCING WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROBABLY
WILL FOLLOW SUIT. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD...SUPPORTING
MOIST LAYER APPEARS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED/LESS UNSTABLE
...LIKELY RESULTING IN NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH...THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH ONE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM WAVES...ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...COULD SUPPORT RENEWED UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...IT PROBABLY
WILL BE ROOTED IN A MOIST LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AS
PRE-FRONTAL RETURN FLOW CONTINUES...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL.
