As a side note before I start this post, I would just like to make the point that I am running out of title ideas. =\
The SPC has placed all of Middle Tennessee under a Slight Risk for severe storms today. We have FINALLY picked up some wind shear, so now it looks more favorable for longer living and more severe storms as opposed to the pulse storms we have been having all week. Here is what the SPC says about today…
…TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO ERN KY…NC…SRN VA…
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALONG PORTION OF COLD FRONT CROSSING PARTS OF KY/TN…AND ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER VA/NC. MID/UPR LVL FLOW AND ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THESE AREAS AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SRN FRINGE OF GRT LKS TROUGH. 35-40 KT WNWLY 700 MB WINDS COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DMGG WIND/HAIL…ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE SVR THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO MID EVE IN VA/NC.
The SPC even dared to include us in todays tornado risk. At the moment it is a very low risk, but I could honestly care less. Even a small risk gives me hope for something! The models do agree with the possibility of a weak tornado, thanks to the wind shear we have today. However, if a tornado were to develop I would imagine it would be brief. Still, a tornado is a tornado and there is a chance (albeit extremely small) for one today.
So, at the moment a cold front is digging southeast towards us. This will be the mechanism to initiate storms today, and you can see on this radar image that it is already storming our way. My guess is that scattered thunderstorms will arrive in the northern part of the state between 11 AM and 12 PM. However there is a lot of room for error in that guess, so don’t hold me too hard to it. Main risk is large hail and damaging winds, so be looking out for that.
