The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for parts of Middle Tennessee tomorrow. They have issued a 30% risk, meaning that there is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. This may sound small, but this is actually a good probability. Right now the area of risk is a bit to our west, but it is possible that the risk will spread further east. Right now the primary threats appear to be large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes… maybe more isolated, but we will have to see when tomorrow comes. I took a brief look at the models and there are definitely pieces in place that are favorable for severe weather, but nowhere NEAR what I want to see. I am hoping that a few things will change and get better, as well as not be a late night storm system. Well, here are some graphics/texts from the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center.
…PORTIONS IL…SRN LOWER MI…AND OH SWWD TO COASTAL TX/LA…
BAND OF STG...LOCALLY SVR TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD INVOF COLD FRONT FROM ARKLATEX REGION SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS
ERN/CENTRAL TX. SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INVOF
FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS LOWER MI...IL AND MO. EACH WOULD BE
ACCESSING CORRIDORS OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY. A FEW SREF MEMBERS INDICATE CONNECTION BETWEEN THESE
AT 7/12Z...BUT THAT APPEARS LESS PROBABLE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER OZARKS REGION. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS
MRGL AT THAT TIME...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AS REGIME SHIFTS EWD WITH
INCREASING DIABATIC HEATING OF PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER.
MORE ROBUST BAND OF TSTMS SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING IN STEP WITH EWD PROGRESS OF FRONT INTO PLUME OF
FAVORABLE SFC MOISTURE. DEW POINTS FCST GENERALLY IN UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S IN NRN PORTION OF OUTLOOK...RANGING TO MID 60S FROM PORTIONS
ERN AR TO GULF COASTAL PLAIN. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SVR ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...WITH MEAN WIND AND SHEAR VECTORS
SHOWING STRONGER COMPONENT ALONG BOUNDARY THAN ACROSS IT. PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOW/LEWP
FORMATIONS...AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.
SVR THREAT BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SWWD EXTENT OVER
MIDDLE-LOWER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED TO SOME EXTENT BY STG
CAPPING. FCST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...I.E. 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE
VALUES...AND LARGE PREFRONTAL MLCAPE IN 2000-3000 J/KG
RANGE...INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SVR GIVEN SUSTAINED CONVECTION.
Here is the HWO for Middle Tennessee…
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
VERY DRY AIR IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS...
WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL.
MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. IF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
ISOLATED TORNADOES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
