Tropical Depression Ida is brewing over the Yucatan Peninsula, and at one point today was a Category 1 hurricane! It is expected to stay a tropical depression as it travels over land. When it enters the gulf, it is expected to head back up to tropical storm status. Though not forecast, it is still possible for the storm to reach Hurricane status again.
Here is a forecast projection from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IDA MOVES OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON
SATURDAY.
This is not the full forecast. The full version is a but too lengthy to post, but you can read it here at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/060236.shtml
Satellite is showing some loose organization of this system… (click for animation)
Current models are in agreement that this system will gain in strength, and then weaken. However, the GFDL model run is showing a possible increase in strength rather than a weakening. Here are the model runs.
Moving to a more local scale, this storm system could very well bring very heavy showers to our area as it moves northward. Tonight there are freeze/frosts warnings for all of Middle Tennessee. The freeze warning is only for select areas… so head over to the “Watches Warnings and Advisories” page under Weather Forecasts to see the specific area. Cover sensitive plants tonight, because it is going to drop down to below 34F.
On a side note, showers are in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday.
Keep warm and dry, and have a good weekend!
Kelton
