Tomorrow will continue this grueling heat wave across Middle Tennessee, with temperatures being in a similar range. The one relieving thing about this heat wave is that it has been relatively dry, so as a friend put it, “it feels more like an oven and less like a steamer.” The good news is that tomorrow will be similarly dry, but still more humid than today. The other good news, is that tomorrow will bring some severe weather to cool things off. Thats right, not just showers… but a slight risk from the Storm Prediction Center.
I felt like I should get a head start on tomorrow’s forecast because I feel like lately I have slacked off… a lot. My SKYWARN Storm Spotter acquaintance, David Drobny, has been WAY more on top of things than me! You should follow him here…
Anyway, my hope is that this post will be timely, and convey that I am still here and care about this stuff. It has been a rather busy few weeks, but the weather doesn’t stop! Enough about my blabber and venting, onward to tomorrows severe weather outlook.
In case you missed it amongst my blabbering, the Storm Prediction Center is expecting severe thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee tomorrow. This time, it also looks like they are more certain of storms compared to the last few risks we have had. The SPC said, “THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DOWNBURSTS AND EVOLVING SURFACE COLD POOLS THAT COULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO GENERATE POTENTIAL DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.” So, it appears that tomorrow could get exciting. Here is the full SPC Convective Outlook.
…TN VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST…
BY EARLY THURSDAY…THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY…WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT…AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER…HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING PROBABLY WILL YIELD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE MIXED LAYER CAPE /AROUND 2000 J PER KG/ AND RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DOWNBURSTS AND EVOLVING SURFACE COLD POOLS THAT COULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO GENERATE POTENTIAL DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. A BELT OF MODEST DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW MAY MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS.
I took a look at the models, and it appears that storms will be ongoing and over the area by 21z, with CAPE values of 2-3000j/kg and some extremely weak 0-3km Helicity. There will also be some what of a capping inversion over the area, which means that the storms that do form will be relatively strong to have broken the cap. It should be interesting tomorrow, that is for sure. I will attempt to make a forecast in the morning if anything progresses.
Stay cool, and stay safe!
