I apologize that I didn’t warn anyone about this upcoming event. Honestly I was both busy and unimpressed with this event, but obviously that isn’t the case now! So, here is the status update.
Middle Tennessee is under 3 different zones of risk. Far eastern is under a HIGH risk, central Middle Tennessee is under a MODERATE risk, and the rest is under a slight risk. There will be a continuance of a slight risk through tomorrow, of which will be discussed later. Here is the Hazardous Weather Outlook:
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING…
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING WEST OF INTERSTATE 24. MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE THREAT OF MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT… REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
Severely heavy rain has fallen today, with flash flood reports all across the states. The creek in my front yard, which you can see in the previous post’s video, became so flooded that it could no longer pass under the road and started flowing over it. 3-6 inches of water began rushing over the road, causing for hazardous driving conditions. The creek itself became well over 6 feet deep!
Western and central portions of Middle Tennessee are still under a Significant/15% tornado risk, and a new Tornado Watch will be issued by the SPC. However, I will post the current watch message here.
DISCUSSION…NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF TN/MS/LA THIS MORNING…WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE RISK OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
As I said above, I would discuss tomorrow’s risk too. But, I again find myself lacking in time so I will just post the SPC discussion.
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY…TN VALLEY…OH VALLEY…CNTRL APPALACHIAN AND NRN APPALACHIANS…
…TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY…
A LARGE AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM THE OH VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS WRN TN AND MS LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY MOVE THE MCS EWD DURING THE DAY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SUNDAY SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING SFC TEMPS JUST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP PORTIONS OF THE LINE SEVERE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEVELOP A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM MS NNEWD ACROSS NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE 50 TO 60 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING-LINE SEGMENTS. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE EWD INTO A WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH A STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE. BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED VERY STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL-DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE LINEAR MCS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
Be safe, and remember: TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!
