• day1otlk_1630

    Today brings a risk for severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds and marginal hail. The Storm Prediction Center has the risk over most of Middle Tennessee, except for a small corner to the north east. Here is the SPC’s discussion… …GULF COAST STATES TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST… AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS…SEVERAL MIDLEVEL IMPULSES ARE [...]

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  • at201001_sat_anim

    Tropical Storm Alex is forecast to become a hurricane within the next few hours. Here is what the National Hurricane Center has to say about it. You can also click on the image at left for a satellite animation. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK —————————— AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS [...]

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  • Yesterday’s Intercept

    Yesterday I had a rare opportunity to intercept a severe thunderstorm – In my own front yard! At 4:49 PM CDT the National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for davidson county. Here is the text… * AT 445 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF [...]

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  • outflow

    Right now there is a multicellular line of thunderstorms moving from Western Tn into Middle Tn. At the moment it looks like it will be here in 2+ hours, with small hail and damaging winds possible. The main threat with these storms will be the active and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Severe potential seems low at [...]

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  • Non-Severe Intercept

    During yesterday’s Slight Risk I had the opportunity to go out spotting on a couple of storms. CAPE values were EXCELLENT and there was still wind shear hanging around, so I was expecting some fun storms to encounter. Though the specific storm I intercepted was non-severe and more towards the end of its cycle, there [...]

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  • day1probotlk_1300_torn

    As a side note before I start this post, I would just like to make the point that I am running out of title ideas. =\ The SPC has placed all of Middle Tennessee under a Slight Risk for severe storms today. We have FINALLY picked up some wind shear, so now it looks more [...]

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  • ww0252_radar

    The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of north and middle Tennessee. THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN             ARKANSAS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND [...]

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  • day1otlk_1630

    Today yields yet another slight risk over north and western portions of Tennessee, with risk for large hail and damaging winds. I took a look at the models, and the is more than enough convection to support thunderstorms today. With CAPE values of 3000 j/kg, they will be strong. However, with lack of wind shear [...]

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  • wpid-day1otlk_2000.gif

    The SPC has expanded its slight risk for today into northern and western Middle Tennessee. A squall line is pushing in from Kentucky, with the main threat being large hail and deadly lightning. I am forecasting this from my phone, so I have no idea what the timing is on the squall but I can [...]

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  • figure3

    The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has issued its yearly prediction of the upcoming hurricane season, which starts June 1st. This forecast does NOT predict how many hurricanes will make landfall, but rather how many hurricanes develop and how strong they might be. Before I discuss and post some of their forecast, I will post their [...]

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